A message from Mark Parsons at ATB Economics:
Now that Calgary's home prices have shot up, shouldn't people be looking for more affordable housing inside Alberta? We think this is happening.
One clue is the dramatic improvement in Edmonton's housing market over the last year, with benchmark prices and home sales picking up steam since the summer of 2023.
Another clue is the sharp acceleration in Edmonton's population, at 4.7% in 2024 vs 3.9% in 2023. Further, growth outside the two major CMAs picked up from 1.6% to 2.2%.
Finally, and perhaps most convincingly, Calgary recorded net outflows to other parts of the province last year. The number isn't big (only 729), but it is the first net outflow since 2008. Further, Edmonton saw a net intraprovincial increase of 2,924, while census agglomerates saw a smaller outflow than normal.
Bottom line: The chasing affordability theme is not nearly as evident in-province as it is between provinces. But we see some signs that it is occurring. Further we think chasing affordability will remain a driving force in 2025, as people continue to seek out less expensive options.
Learn more in this edition of The Seven.
For more number-crunching on Alberta's economy, visit The Twenty-Four Seven by ATB.