A message from Rob Roach at ATB Economics:
Given the tumult in financial markets, cratering oil prices, and rising U.S. recession fears, it feels like the economic ground won't stop shaking beneath our feet.
Meanwhile, large parts of the economy continue to move forward — not as if nothing else is going on, but despite it.
Agriculture is a prime example. Trade war or no trade war, there are fields to prepare, calving to be done, moisture conditions to be checked, and so on.
While there are likely other U.S. tariff shoes to drop, Alberta's agriculture sector has so far been spared as long as exporters can demonstrate they are compliant with the rules of origin requirements in the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (which may be easier said than done).
Somewhat ironically, Canada's counter-tariffs on U.S. goods mean that imports of wheat, barley, and canola from the U.S. face a 25% Canadian tax. This could increase domestic demand for Canadian wheat, canola, and barley as buyers seek to avoid the tariffs.
Canadian agriculture and agri-food producers will also have an advantage over foreign suppliers who face reciprocal U.S. tariffs. Canadian counter-tariffs, however, may increase operating costs.
Learn more about what farmers and ranchers are facing in this edition of The Twenty-Four.
For more number-crunching on Alberta's economy, visit The Twenty-Four Seven by ATB.