Report suggests Edmonton's emissions are decreasing too slowly

A report that updates Edmonton's progress on its carbon budget shows that the city was cloaked in wildfire smoke for several weeks cumulatively in the past two years.

During the 2023 wildfire season, the report notes, Edmonton had 36 days with an air quality health index of seven, posing a high health risk. During the 2024 season, Edmonton had an air quality health index of seven for 15 days.

Jacob Komar, the co-chair of the Energy Transition Climate Resilience Committee, told Taproot that the cumulative figure in the carbon budget report jumped out at him, especially when one remembers the smoky days were often paired with hot temperatures.

"This is impacting Edmontonians on a yearly basis," Komar said.

The cost of climate change and the climate impacts of budget decisions are explored in the update to Edmonton's carbon budget, which was presented in a report to city council in November alongside the operating and capital budget updates.

The report shows emissions are trending down in Edmonton, but not fast enough to reach the goals outlined in the carbon budget. The budget is one action the city has taken after declaring a climate emergency in 2019.

"In a way, the report is not a surprise," Komar said. "It kind of backs up what has been happening in previous years. We knew this is the path we're headed on. We know we're not tackling emissions in the way that we need to in order to meet our commitments that we made through our declaration of a climate emergency."

Extreme weather has an economic impact on top of its physical, mental, and emotional risks. The report notes Edmonton spent $16 million responding to wildfire evacuees in 2023. Komar said there will be more situations that highlight the cost of inaction on climate change in the years to come.

Edmonton introduced a carbon budget in late 2022 during budget deliberations. Unlike the operating and capital budgets, the carbon budget is not debated or modified. Instead, it is meant to show council how its funding choices could increase or decrease carbon emissions. City administration said Edmonton was the first city in Canada and the second in the world to use a carbon budget.

The budget is divided into two parts. There are corporate emissions, which city administration has direct control over, like emissions from city-owned vehicles or city buildings. The other part is community emissions, which city administration can influence with policy, like by making it easier and safer to use active transportation, or offering incentives for solar power installation on homes.

Komar said it took decades to reach a point where climate change is changing the everyday lives of Edmontonians, and it's now going to take significant time to see results from climate action in the city. He pointed to the new zoning bylaw, which enables denser forms of city building and, in theory, lowered emissions from fewer vehicles on the road, as well as the city's investments in active transportation infrastructure as meaningful actions.

"Those things don't pay back in the first year," Komar said. "You're not going to see them on the first year, but they're huge investments and huge game changers that are changing future emissions, which doesn't really translate."

In 2023, Edmontonians emitted 16.2 million tonnes of carbon, which is 9.3% lower than the baseline year of 2005 and 7% lower than 2019. But, to reach the goals in the carbon budget, a 26% reduction from the 2005 level was required. To get back on track in 2024, Edmonton's emissions need to be 23% lower than 2023 emissions.

Because emissions aren't trending down fast enough, the carbon budget is forecast to be depleted in 2036, one year earlier than was forecast when the carbon budget was created, and 14 years earlier than the initial goal of 2050.

Alberto Altamirano, the carbon budget manager at the City of Edmonton, told Taproot it's much easier for the city to control the corporate emissions.

"As a corporation, the city has a little bit more control on how we manage our internal carbon budget, but at the community level, that's a harder dial to turn," Altamirano said.

For example, all corporate electricity is expected to transition to renewable energy in 2025. A solar facility provides 20% of the corporation's energy and a wind facility, set to come online next year, will provide the other 80%.

There is positive news on the community side, too. Edmontonians have achieved and surpassed the 2030 energy efficiency target set in the Energy Transition Strategy. Edmonton's per capita energy use has reduced by 40% from 2005 levels.

The carbon budget is further complicated because projects that are seen as good, either for climate action or for social reasons, can actually increase emissions, according to the report. When city council added 50,000 annual bus hours to the Edmonton Transit Service, it was assumed that this would lead to a reduction in community emissions as more people might be encouraged to take public transit. However, the increase in service required 20 new diesel buses, which is estimated to increase corporate carbon emissions by 1,300 tonnes annually.

Council also approved supportive housing projects in Canora and Garneau, which will help house people with complex health and addiction needs. However, those buildings will contribute to increased emissions.

Altamirano pointed out road-widening projects as having a positive impact on carbon emissions, as it enables vehicle traffic to flow more freely, reducing emissions from idling. But studies suggest the reduction in emissions from congestion relief is far outweighed by emission increases from inducing more vehicle traffic, meaning more people will be encouraged to drive single-passenger vehicles on the widened road.

A study from the Sightline Institute found one new mile of highway lane can increase emissions by more than 100,000 tonnes over 50 years.

There are no projects in the proposed capital and operating budget updates that are expected to change the carbon forecast, as larger projects are typically put forward in the four-year budgets. One proposed change is to cancel the energy poverty program, which offers energy efficiency education and home upgrades to low-income families. As the program hasn't launched yet, it wouldn't lead to increased emissions, but axing it would also eliminate its potential to reduce emissions in future years.

Komar suggests the city should explore ambitious policies to get back on track. Edmonton saw a record-breaking number of housing starts this year, with construction starting on more than 10,000 homes by Nov. 18. But nearly all of those houses will be heated with natural gas instead of more climate-friendly heat pumps. Komar said New York City, Vancouver, and Quebec have banned natural gas connections in new buildings after a certain date.

"We should absolutely be doing that, because fundamentally, how can we keep adding emissions with every new home that is being built while we're trying to reduce emissions? Let's stop kidding ourselves," Komar said. "The best way to stop using fossil fuels is to stop using fossil fuels. Like, I don't know, it's not that difficult."

Because Edmonton is unable to require a more energy-efficient building code than what the province requires, it's unclear whether the city could ban natural gas hearing.

Komar suggested that even though municipalities can't enforce a more energy-efficient building code than what the province requires, Edmonton could offer quicker permit turn-around times to developments that are planned to be more energy-efficient.

"Our committee keeps coming to (council), saying, 'We need to be more ambitious, we need to go faster, we're not falling in line,' but (council doesn't) want to enact a policy that is just going to be undone, especially with an election coming up," Komar said.

Despite the grim outlook in the carbon budget, Komar remains optimistic.

"I think I am hopeful in a way, because the world is changing," Komar said. He pointed to a surge in solar installations, investment in renewables, and electric vehicle adoption.

"It's over for fossil fuels, and this is why you're seeing through provincial policies in the fossil fuel industry — they're grasping, they're just trying to hang on because they know it's over for them, and they're trying to protect their profits," he said.

RMI reports that 60% of countries have seen a peak and decline in fossil fuel use, and forecasts that fossil fuel demand will collapse "shortly."

Council is scheduled to decide on the financial budget adjustments in early December.